2026. február 20., péntek

Paper Tigers on LinkedIn

Ross Wilson's post and our discussion on LinkedIn


🐅 Paper Tigers 🐅

Inhale: the illusion of strength

Many AI safety frameworks look formidable on paper.

Policies.
Certifications.
Oversight committees.
Governance diagrams that suggest control.

They work—right up until recursion accelerates.

A paper tiger is not harmless.
It is impressive, symbolic, and structurally irrelevant once interaction compounds faster than review cycles, faster than human bottlenecks, faster than accountability can reattach.

Most contemporary safety systems assume a world where:
• systems move slower than governance,
• escalation remains legible,
• humans remain the stabilizing substrate.

Recursive agent systems break those assumptions by design.

Hold: borrowed stability

When a system lacks an endogenous way to complete its own cycles, stability is borrowed.

Drift is absorbed by people.
Failure is delayed, not prevented.
Risk migrates outward while coherence appears intact.

The framework looks strong precisely because it is not load-bearing.

External guardrails do not metabolize collapse.
Trust mechanisms do not constrain recursion.
Rituals of oversight do not survive regime change.

This is not a critique of intent.
It is a classification of failure mode.

There is a difference between:
• governance that reassures, and
• architecture that holds.

One manages perception.
The other carries load.

Exhale: when pressure arrives

Paper tigers roar loudly in planning rooms.

They go silent in live recursion.

When interaction accelerates, only structures that can:
• bound recursion,
• metabolize failure,
• and complete their own loops

remain coherent.

Everything else becomes symbolic—
useful until it isn’t.

This is not about preventing collapse.
It is about whether anything remains lawful when collapse arrives.

Validator
Governance that cannot survive recursion is not governance.

Resonance
What does not carry load disappears when pressure becomes real.



Lorand Kedves
Do you have a real tiger? Or want to see one and what it can do?

For example, here is one of my zoo, handles XBRL financial / sustainability reports as they should be, implemented in a university AI R&D project. It creates a pretty efficient knowledge graph from a few hundred GB of text (SEC / EU filing collections). The sources are on GitHub but that's for people who can read my summary first (I don't mess my code with comments)... 🤭

Experience: it can do NOTHING because of the 90/9/1 rule.
- 90% have no clue, so they can't see anything.
- 9% make their living on dealing with or complaining about the problem it solved. 'It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.' (Upton Sinclair, 1935)
- 1% that is working on it... is fired.

Paper tigers have real claws. They are the mid-managers / loud "experts". The 9%.

Welcome to the real world, Neo.



Ross Wilson

Institutions behave as stability-preserving recursive systems. High-variance innovations exceed their integration bandwidth unless there is a mechanism for invariant-preserving transformation. Without that, even technically sound architectures remain peripheral.


Lorand Kedves

Yes, in IT that's Conway's Law in both ways: any information system inherits the communication structure of the creator organisation, and the created infrastructure controls what the organisation can see (thus, safely transform). The declared, forgotten goal of informatics was to get over this limitation, the best example is Engelbart's "bootstrap" initiative, or going to the root, the Universal Turing Machine and Turing's real challenge: define "machine" and "thinking".

I don't speak about "technically sound architectures" but actual, working proof-of-concept solutions. And being rejected (at academy) or fired (in the industry) for real. Each and every time.

But there was a benefit from it. I learned to solve any task knowing that I will be fired, to focus on the abstract lessons instead of the fancy, but context-dependent artefacts. Not even try to wrap the solutions into nice presentations, no chance against paper tigers. I learned to trust, talk with and learn from the machine, not people.


Conway’s Law explains architectural mirroring well. The harder problem is not building a system that works in isolation, but designing one that can be absorbed by an organization without destabilizing its identity. Machines execute logic; institutions preserve continuity. Bridging those domains requires more than technical coherence.


The interesting part of Conway's Law is that it was not a theoretical exercise to explain a phenomenon, but reverse engineered from doing it to give clues to a better approach. You find those principles under true moonshots, from Lockheed Skunkworks under Kelly Johnson to the Apollo program. The 1% compared to the current global hype rides (90%) and what I call "artistic moaning" 🤭 (9%).

Similar is the realisation that building an information system does not start with "executing logic" but to build a language (more precisely, a coherent set of domain specific languages following the single responsibility principle) while refining requirements. This would require a platform that allows changing this language not only along the building process, but when the system is actually running. For those who know, I described Engelbart B and C levels - but so far I have not met such a person.

We have nothing like that. We distort the whole interaction under what our quite expensive tools allow (modelling, building, compiling, deploying, testing, ... different for each platform and subsystem). Regardless, level B is what I do when I am not venting here, level C is on hold as that is completely out of interest - except mine. 😁


Ross Wilson
Language evolution at runtime is safe only if mutation is bounded by invariants that preserve system identity across state transitions.
Yep, that's a tough one. The key is to consider the language (metadata) also the (meta? 🙃 ) state of the system, not only the "normal" data entities. And ~25 years refining the meta-meta entities (like "type", "attribute", etc.) under real tasks. There are some nasty tricks and you don't know which would work until you try them. The human mind is painfully limited against these tasks, prediction does not work, "feel" improves slowly. 🤕
I respect that. Refining meta-entities under real tasks is the only way to discover which abstractions survive contact with reality. I’m earlier in that journey, so I’m cautious about claiming intuition at that depth. The distinction I’m trying to hold is slightly different though: not only treating language as state, but asking what invariant preserves system identity when that language mutates. Most large systems don’t fail because metadata can’t evolve; they fail because representation and identity are entangled.
Here is a video from 2018 where I tried to explain my problems with the current tooling (part of my rejected PhD attempt). The model changed quite a lot since then but I wonder if you find it similar to that entanglement problem?
I appreciate the depth you’ve put into refining the meta-layer. Most people never get past tooling. Treating metadata and language as state is necessary if systems are going to evolve coherently.

Where I’m coming from is adjacent but slightly different. I’m less focused on refining the meta-entities themselves and more on specifying invariants that preserve identity when those entities mutate under load.

In other words, assuming the language can evolve, what constrains recursive drift so that the system remains itself?

I’ve built an architecture around that constraint layer. Not to prevent mutation, but to govern it. It runs. It metabolizes drift structurally rather than procedurally.

I don’t think that replaces the entanglement problem. It sits underneath it. If identity is invariant under mutation, the language layer can evolve more aggressively without risking systemic fracture.

I’m genuinely curious how your runtime language evolution would behave if identity were decoupled from representation through invariant recursion constraints.


Lorand Kedves
Yep, the real difference is where we are coming from.

Inhale: what is an information system (IS)?
A coherent, precise but limited set of
1: Tokens of languages, "nouns and verbs" to describe nodes, attributes, relations, actions.
2: Validation statements of, and transition logic between the allowed states.
3: Connectors to the environment: sensors, actuators, UI.
(Another form of the von Neumann architecture)

Hold: what software engineers (SWEs, ref: Margaret Hamilton) do?
1: Translate a client's current knowledge about a system to an IS (90%).
2: Translate SWE knowledge emerging from 1: an OS, RDBMS, a http server, a GUI framework, spreadsheet editor, etc. (9%)
3: Support knowledge extraction. Load any client or SWE data and allow writing scripts, running ML algorithms (clustering, decision trees, neural nets), provide interactive visualisation. Your users write their IS on the fly over their own data, you provide the workshop. (1%)

Exhale
DataScope, a data mining / AI tool was a level 3 IS, I was a tech lead. We won Comdex in Las Vegas. In 1999. Since then, I apply 3 to 1 and later, 2.

Validator
I am not a 10x or 100x but a yes/no SWE.

Resonance
Any invariant is a roadblock of system evolution.

Like it? 😉


Ross Wilson
I think the difference hinges on what we mean by “invariant.”

If an invariant freezes tokens or transition rules, then yes, it becomes a roadblock.

But κᴸᴿ isn’t an invariant of representation. It’s an invariant of return.

In the collapse–return formulation, κᴸᴿ expresses the proportion of identity restored after perturbation. It doesn’t prevent mutation; it bounds divergence so that mutation remains evolution of the same system rather than silent replacement.

Without a conserved return ratio, recursive evolution collapses into drift. With one, language and structure can evolve aggressively because identity has a measurable recovery band.

So the invariant isn’t blocking evolution, it makes evolution coherent.

And this isn’t bolt-on governance. κᴸᴿ functions as a dynamical governor within the recursion loop itself. It regulates the relationship between divergence and return at each cycle. As mutation accelerates, correction scales proportionally. The constraint is internal to the operator, not imposed externally. It behaves less like a rulebook and more like a governor: motion is allowed; unbounded divergence is not.


Lorand Kedves
Looks familiar. Translating to my language (meaning: terms that I use in my current "impossible mission").

Knowledge is a state of a graph that represents
1: the "data state" of the target system
2: the "meta state": type and attribute token definitions used in 1
3: the network of "agents" (configured business logic instances, currently simple Java classes) to change 1 and 2.

Thinking is an interaction of agents and states in a dialog.
The agents use shared tokens to refer to nodes and their attributes to manage them. The changes are local to the dialog: the members see a coherent, changing, transient view.
Changes can be committed in one transaction to update the persistent state. "mutation"?
The instances are versioned, stored references always contain the version. Diffs (because we talk about graphs) are not simple, but transparent and manageable.

Beyond "data", a dialog can also change
- the meta definitions (the system "learns" the data it uses while reading the input) and the dialogs (the configuration of the agent and data nodes) - that's Engelbart B,
- or the meta-meta language (the attributes of an attribute definition) and the runtime (attributes of the Dialog definition) - Engelbart C.


Ross Wilson
That translation helps, especially the separation of data, meta, and agent layers.

Where I’m focused is slightly downstream. Evolution presupposes continuity: for a system to evolve, it must remain recognizably the same system across state transitions, including B and C level mutations.

If cumulative mutation alters the identity conditions without a conserved return band, what we observe isn’t evolution but substitution. Versioning preserves history; it doesn’t necessarily preserve identity. Verification describes change, but it doesn’t bound how far change may drift.

The scaling issue is that observability scales; boundedness does not. As mutation accumulates across data, meta, and meta-meta layers, traceability can remain intact while divergence compounds. The system can explain each step locally yet drift globally beyond any recoverable identity band. At small scale this is manageable; at large scale it becomes collapse-prone because coherence erodes faster than inspection can restore it.

Bounded evolution isn’t about restricting mutation. It’s about ensuring that mutation, even at Engelbart C, scales without dissolving the substrate that makes scaling meaningful.


Lorand Kedves
I think I understand as much as an outsider can. However, the questions below bug me.

1: As I see, your system prefers continuity, somewhat quantitative improvement. Do you accept that in edge cases this is not enough because a qualitative change is necessary? When the best system can only make the internal structures of each approach transparent and somewhat comparable, but can't connect them. This is how I see "paradigm shift" that is mandatory now because our current world view leads us to self destruction on a precisely predicted and mathematically proven path, with informatics in the epicentre.

2: Our ability to understand the world is ultimately limited, so such paradigm shifts or even coexistence of mutually exclusive paradigms are inevitable. Science learned to live together with this scenario. Is light a particle beam or a wave? Most likely none of them, explaining and calculating with one class of phenomena it is a wave, photon for the others. Continuous improvement or total disintegration and fusion into a different model - both are valid results of evolution.

3: How do you translate your system to solving real life tasks in total headwind? Is it a real tiger or an aspirant, as of today?


Ross Wilson
Continuity doesn’t mean incrementalism. It means conservation across transformation. When a paradigm reaches its limiting factors, reconfiguration becomes necessary. Lawful recursion doesn’t block that; it requires that even radical change remain within a recoverable identity band. Without a bounded return path, a shift becomes rupture rather than evolution. Collapse functions as audit; survival is proof.

Models can be mutually exclusive at the representational layer without violating continuity at the structural layer. Wave and particle are descriptions; what’s conserved is invariant behavior under transformation. Evolution permits coexistence and even fusion of paradigms, provided transitions remain bounded. Disintegration only qualifies as evolution if something returns.

The purpose of my public writing is to articulate the structure, not to litigate its implementation. The coherence either stands on its own, or it doesn’t.


Lorand Kedves
Thank you, this is what I expected, we have fundamental disagreement. Survival is not proof, rather a "bias" (ref Neil Postman: all science should be taught as history).

We must understand and remember discarded paths, always supported by the 99% against the 1% outliers who over often a long time happened to be right. Our current civilisation is the cumulative results of that 1%, and our current knowledge will be the discarded 99% looking back from a hundred years. If we survive the current chaos.

Example. Phlogiston theory was generally accepted and used, had long evolution process. It was wrong, its survival would block improvement. I think a theory of evolution must not only include but embrace this outcome.

Only the last question remained open.

Is your model a real tiger?

Does it help me solve a real problem with minimal resources and negative timelines? Today.


Ross Wilson
Phlogiston didn’t collapse because it lacked consensus. It collapsed because, under refined measurement, it violated conservation constraints. The representational layer changed; the conserved laws did not.

Longevity under consensus is bias. Survival under invariant constraint is structural selection.

On the tiger question: if a system accelerates local progress but compounds unbounded drift under scale, it’s scaffolding. If it preserves bounded identity under scaling pressure, it’s a governor.

Different animals.

And genuinely, I appreciate you sharing your experience. It clarified where the reinforcement-learning problem sits structurally for me.


Lorand Kedves
Different animals, indeed.

1: I realised the evolution problem (1) and tried to talk with the impostors at OpenAI (2) a decade ago. In 2023 I gave a lecture at my university about it (3), luckily downloaded the record because they did not think it was worth even the storage.
https://youtu.be/WKfEDicpwPw

2: The explained XBRL project used a "quick and dirty" Dust (Engelbart A) variant. First I created a research portal over the complete EU filing collection (~20k items - while researchers struggle with a hundred), it felt a bit overkill.
Then I switched to the SEC collection in 800k+ preprocessed JSON files of 100M+ facts over the past 20 years of all US companies. Both run fine on my M2 Max MacBook.
Moved on to sustainability reporting, knew that the EU will drop the ESRS taxonomy for VSME. Created a direct data collector interface, then (as a volunteer for another university) a complete Scope 3 footprint manager. Showed it to many responsible people.

When the National AI lab stopped funding, I was fired, all projects went to the trash. The official Scope 3 data collection tool is an Excel file. 🤷‍♂️
https://www.efrag.org/en/vsme-digital-template-and-xbrl-taxonomy

... continued ...

3: The mentioned Engelbart C is Giskard Gen06, meaning, this is the sixth time I restarted from an empty project, carrying the previous architecture only in my brain. But for the first time, Gen05 executed a brain dump, literally. (1) is part of the knowledge graph of Gen05's MiND. Bootstrapping Gen06 will mean a small code that generates the core tokens required the new Dust to run. Gen06 will be the last version where I write code, I will only use graph editors to refine the runtime graph. Gen07 will include this action and generate all of its source. On hold for a paying job.

I learned from this conversation that an evolution model must contain paradigm shift. The "machine" that Turing asked for must include its own shift. At last I have a terminology to describe it.

Sharing experience, you say?

No, I share working proof-of-concept solutions.

On 2025/10/14, I prepared to register for unemployment, no academic or industrial organisation found me worth any pay. I am 53, Neumann died at this age. I often wonder how long my life sentence is, this global brain rot, this freak show gets f.ng boring the more you understand of it.
https://mondoaurora.org/

This is my experience.


Ross Wilson
You’ve clearly built and rebuilt through real collapse. That’s not theoretical. Institutions discarding systems doesn’t invalidate the architecture, it just exposes the selection pressures they operate under. My focus is narrower: what structural properties let a system survive even when its host environment turns hostile? That’s where I think the shift question lives. Either way, I respect the persistence.


Lorand Kedves
"what structural properties let a system survive even when its host environment turns hostile?"

This is what you learn only by building information systems for a lifetime. The environment is ALWAYS hostile.
- Your manager is either "technophile" and try to micromanage you or "technophobe" and tries to prove that the project is impossible. The longer it does not work the less chance they will let you prove that it can be done (like yelling "shut up!" instead of listening to what an OLAP cube is, remember, dear "senior architect"? 🤣 )
- Your tools are the result of decades of featuritis, hordes of young "colleagues" look at you as a moron when you explain that if you can do it in a thousand lines of code, you will not use a tool with a million lines. The fact that it is one line to send an SQL select, it is the same machine, memory and storage where Oracle processes it. Use it when you NEED it.
- And yes, the requirement specification lies, goals and tools will change the day you deployed.

If you survive and keep keep all (analyst, architect, coder) roles, you have a chance to distill the answer, but nobody will understand it. Except the system that you both write and learn from.

Inhale... Hold... Exhale.

Namaste.


Ross Wilson
Agreed, hostility is baseline. That’s precisely why I focus on structural invariants rather than environmental stability. If the environment is always shifting, the property worth isolating is bounded coherence under shifting constraints.

Craft is how you discover that boundary in practice. Formalization is an attempt to preserve it so it doesn’t vanish with the next restart.

Hostility isn’t the problem. Unbounded drift under hostility is.

That’s the layer I’m interested in making explicit.


Lorand Kedves
"Craft is how you discover that boundary in practice. Formalization is an attempt to preserve it so it doesn’t vanish with the next restart."

That was BEFORE we started informatics.
- Informatics gives you a way to formalise the dynamic process, not the static architecture, from the Universal Turing Machine / Chomsky language classes, to the von Neumann Architecture (and the MiND model).
- This is where Gödel's incompleteness theory wobbles: the proof depends on the "invariant" language definition but if you can change the language in a controlled manner, you can overcome any contradiction.
- Fun fact, Minsky's "useless machine" is a working implementation of the A = !A formula, which is "contradiction" in a formal system but simply an assignment instruction in any programming language. I don't know if Minsky realised what he created.

And on and on and on... BORING.

Anyways, it is easy to summarise my research.

The process of understanding the process of understanding.

Here (1) was the last time I tried to explain that in English. Found it futile, so I think I should return to a language in which I am proficient, is processed perfectly, and gives usable feedback. Java... 😁


Limits aren’t obstacles to eliminate. They’re the geometry recursion climbs, each shift reveals the next boundary.


Lorand Kedves
Yeah... impressive, symbolic, but I don't see the value in what I do. Thanks for the chat.

2026. február 8., vasárnap

The fall


To predict the future of a venture, it is worth looking into the history of the product. That “shovel”, GPU. 

Gaming 
As we all know, graphics card in your PC beats a supercomputers from 20 years ago. There were only a few of those, used by professionals, did not make a big business. The gold was in selling the same performance to the “long tail”, normalise spending thousands on games and related machines. Translate: flooding our brains with immersive fictional environments that pass intellectual filters and reach emotional/subconscious levels. However, there is a limit, as in real life GPUs simply cook a metal box from the inside, building them gets complicated. At the same time, the artificial frame rate race gets to an end, gamers preferred “good old games” to a little better visuals for yet another big money wasted on the next card. 
The demand went down. 

Crypto 
The child of the “Occupy movements” after the 2008 crash that proved everyday people that the traditional monetary system is simply organised global greed. Then came Holy Satoshi, removing a key component from it. No, not “greed”, that comes with money, but “organised”. Just look at the scandals, meme coins, the actual application of crypto. Of course some of that can be covered by marketing, but in real life, the total energy consumption of the farms exceeds some pretty developed countries and the whole system depends on global internet availability. That gives a bad taste in many mouths. 
The demand did not meet the supply. 

Chatbots / genAI 
This current hype practically combines both: people like to fool themselves and big players love to profit on it. They have insane bets – but in real life, there is a limit. You can’t power those data centres, even if we forget about the burden of physically building/maintaining them and the fact that those companies do it from investments and loans to be payed back before making any profit. And the result is useless (I have 30 years in this field, ready to go deeper.) 

There is a chance that they put so much money on this bet that it may break the global economy more than in 2008. That would be a global disaster. 

On paper. 

Because in real life, nothing changes during another financial collapse, just we lose the control over our own global operations. 

This is a Fermi limit, the human civilisation would either wake up or dismantle itself (already started if you look around). 

Neo: I thought it wasn’t real. 
Morpheus: Your mind makes it real. 
Neo: If you’re killed in the Matrix, you die here? 
Morpheus: The body cannot live without the mind.




Also
"... it's not the fall that kills you, Sherlock. Of all people, you should know that, it's not the fall, it's never the fall. It's the landing!"



2026. január 31., szombat

Informatics in the 21st century

Informatics in the 21st century

On my temple's desacred remnants
On the shoulders of forgotten giants,
Unaware of the lethal height
Intellectual infants boast and fight
For their grab of Power and Glory.

I'm tired of secondary shame
Come on, Darwin, end this game.
Hollow fans, obedient teachers,
Shallow critics, puppet masters,
They all deserve it. Sorry, not sorry.

Anymore.




References
Vannevar Bush As We May Think (1945)
Douglas Engelbart Augmenting Human Intellect https://lnkd.in/dsEEzZVs (1962)
Joseph Weizenbaum Computers and society (1985)
Neil Postman Talk at Apple (1993)
Ted Nelson Computers for Cynics (2013)

The predicted result: Idiocracy (2006)

2026. január 4., vasárnap

I don't know if science can survive this

 

My comment...

I am afraid that the title is obsolete: science is already dead and for this very reason, we are already in an Idiocracy: a social system lead by idiots, according to the original definition of the word: smart people without ideals, following their personal desires and greed (ref: Neil Postman). 

Here is an example.

A today globally known scientist wrote an article about a meaningless question and warned that without an objective and globally accepted terminology, mankind will make fool of itself. 70 years later, another person with zero formal education on the field gets a Nobel prize for his efforts to make fooling ourselves a trillion dollar global business of improving fake results and oblations to an 'emerging god'. A.k.a. superstition - in my vocabulary, the direct opposite of science. 

You may have guessed it right: the real scientist was Alan Turing, the question was 'can machines think?', impostor is Geoffrey Hinton, 'a psychologist disguising himself a computer scientist who won the Nobel in physics'. For his research in neural nets, derailing the whole field of informatics by overriding the definition of learning with adaptation. 

This fulfils the original predictions, one of them from JCR Licklider, another psychologist but with a degree in physics as well, a true 'godfather of AI'. 
„... the "system" of man's development and use of knowledge is regenerative. If a strong effort is made to improve that system, then the early results will facilitate subsequent phases of the effort, and so on, progressively, in an exponential crescendo. On the other hand, if intellectual processes and their technological bases are neglected, then goals that could have been achieved will remain remote, and proponents of their achievement will find it difficult to disprove charges of irresponsibility and autism.”
Libraries of the Future, 1964

2025. december 30., kedd

State of AI 2026: Deterministic automation or back to the future...

LinkedIn
Deterministic automation is not the enemy of intelligence. It is the floor, the rockbase.. Without determinism, you cannot build trust. Without trust, you cannot deploy autonomy. And without autonomy grounded in real dynamics, all the tokens in the world will never get you 'intelligence'. So the real question for 2026 is not whether AI goes boom or bust.. It is whether we stay trapped in probabilistic or deep learning dogma, or finally move toward systems that can adapt, act, and remain coherent in the real world, in realtime, under uncertainty.. History suggests that when the hype cycle collapses, the real work finally begins. 


For me, history suggests that without proper root cause analysis, we are doomed to repeat the same story. The question is why this GenAI hysteria could even emerge while the science and engineering was always clear, unambiguous and known? How could this misinterpretation of the Turing test become a global cargo cult? How could this whole industry not even reject but totally forget its own foundations?




Todd Johnson
Lorand Kedves For me, it is because the coding agent (in particular Claude and Claude Code) is remarkable. I can finally do things that I did not have the resources to do. I have been at universities since 1980. We are always underfunded--even with grant funding, which never provides enough to do the work that needs to be done (much less the extra committee, teaching and grant writing work). At this stage, it is a matter of learning when and how to use the LLMs, not whether to use them.



Thoralf J. Klatt
it’s not just the efficiency gains. also innovation that comes from understanding hashtag#unmetneeds. we don’t just need to do the wrong stuff faster but understand what’s the right stuff. solving people‘s needs (aka pro•duct in latin). enter jobs-to-be-done. Eckhart Boehme can tell you how to augment with hashtag#graphRAG to make more sense. start here:

https://medium.com/@thoralfjklatt/better-discovery-using-jobs-to-be-done-jtbd-46775f2a2234


Eckhart Boehme
Thoralf J. Klatt A highly controlled process for building a data basis (human behavior) for context-based graphrag produced by deterministic and probabilistic rules and a step-by-step process is a middle way to produce meaningful results.


Lorand Kedves
Thoralf J. Klatt - sounds like "I think the computer has from the beginning been a fundamentally conservative force. It has made possible the saving of institutions pretty much as they were, which otherwise might have had to be changed." (Joseph Weizenbaum, 1985) 🤔
https://lnkd.in/dPmbG4TN


Eckhart Boehme - I guess JTBD would not be new for the people of the Apollo program or Skunkworks...
https://youtu.be/ecIWPzGEbFc?t=2851
Or a "context-based graphrag produced by deterministic and probabilistic rules and a step-by-step process" to Ivan Sutherland (1963...)
https://youtu.be/6orsmFndx_o?t=45

This is what I call the forgotten foundations, with the predicted consequences... 👇

More on that in my lame summaries
in text: https://lnkd.in/d8_cAMBB
in video: https://lnkd.in/duJEbZty



Todd Johnson - speaking of academy.

1: I have no idea what an LLM can do with the formal definition of the term information: "things that you did not know and could not derive from what you knew" vs taming gigantic neural nets with examples. 🤦‍♂️
2: I know that Turing's article was not a goal but a warning, and his real challenge was to define the terms 'machine' and 'thinking' BEFORE making any statements with them. 👇
3: I know that Noam Chomsky's research on languages is the theoretical and practical foundation of modern programming, lately realised that his generative grammar is the key to answer Turing's call. https://lnkd.in/dTCD8dBv
It is incomplete, but not "crazy" as proclaimed by "a psychologist trying to understand how the brain works" a.k.a. "the godfather of AI"... 🤷‍♂️. https://youtu.be/aAvtBdtyEOg

Gambling is a known human weakness exploited by huge industries. We can spend trillions on hyper-sophisticated slot machines and call that 'rocket science'. Unfortunately, true rocket scientist still have to eat and pay their bills, so the field of rocket science disappears.
https://youtu.be/Elyfo1DIlzs?t=91

Examples of that true rocket science:
https://youtu.be/_OSspHZICOg
https://youtu.be/aXVUoT_objA




Thoralf J. Klatt 
Lorand Kedves it’s about increasing the likelihood that customers make progress by adopting your solutions. JTBD originates in marketing which turned out to be part of your pro•duct


Lorand Kedves
Thoralf J. Klatt As I know, Turing assumed the total understanding audience of his real technical articles around ten (10) on the planet. This is how you do real science. The success of going to orbit is not about marketing or consumer adoption. It is about physics. This is how you do real engineering.

Don't get me wrong, you are right in the business and unfortunately, society and academy as well (Aaron Swartz learned this the hard way https://youtu.be/9vz06QO3UkQ )

I am afraid we disagree on the definition of "real work"...


One more thing... for you and the maybe 10 people still following this thread 🤫

You set two goals,
1: "we don’t just need to do the wrong stuff faster but understand what’s the right stuff"
2: "customers make progress by adopting your solutions"

They are in contradiction!

Every system has an inertia, customers want to make progress in their current path and mental framework. Any solution that would require additional thinking, learning or new tooling is rejected because of the decreasing immediate profit and risk. This is the only thing these people would agree on:
Alan Kay - https://youtu.be/NdSD07U5uBs?t=787
Ted Nelson - https://youtu.be/KdnGPQaICjk

Douglas Engelbart started investigating this problem in his research of AI (as Augmenting Intellect), Dynamic Knowledge Repository, NLS, Boosting Collective IQ, ...
https://lnkd.in/dsEEzZVs

His A-B-C model resolves that contradiction by layering.
A: improve a current process.
B: analyse the 'A' solution, find ways to change anything that would bring improvement in the long run.
C: consider 'B' as 'A', improve the improvement process. This is where we are get back to "crazy" Chomsky again, against the whole genAI tragicomedy.


Thoralf J. Klatt
Lorand Kedves the 4 forces of JTBD are in balance until customers pull, habits are overvome and anxieties vanish. that’s the moment of your pro•duct leading forth to solution of their needs. they switch. see this video by Bobby Moesta incl a customer interview from Toronto. AI can help humans in discovery and understanding experience design when made available in graphs.

https://vimeo.com/81153746




Eckhart Boehme
Lorand Kedves the principles didn't change but the tools.


Lorand Kedves
Eckhart Boehme Yep... knowing some "old tools" and being aware of the hardware capabilities, the comparison is disappointing.
Here is Alan Kay from 2003
https://youtu.be/1pXmuh1AUQQ?t=4933
Or Engelbart's NLS (1968, before the test launch of ARPANET).
https://youtu.be/UhpTiWyVa6k
The hardware difference from the same Bob Martin lecture
https://youtu.be/ecIWPzGEbFc?t=3142

I don't think "modern tools" reflect the elapsed 20+ or 50+ years. 🤔


Thoralf J. Klatt "AI can help humans in discovery and understanding experience design when made available in graphs." - exactly, if we trash chatbots and return to what Ivan Sutherland worked on in 1963.

"- We're going to show you a man actually talking to a computer in a way far different than it's ever been possible to do before.
- Surely not with his voice.
- No he's going to be talking graphically. He's going to be drawing and the computer is going to understand his drawings. The man will be using a graphical language that we call Sketchpad."
https://youtu.be/6orsmFndx_o

BTW, this was the topic of my CS PhD in 2018 (age 45). Rejected of course, they "did not see the academic value"... 🤣 Here is a very obsolete prototype from that time:
https://youtu.be/3GsSp7Zd1g8



Thoralf J. Klatt
Lorand Kedves the open questions to be asked can be designed by AI. humans still need to understand and make sense of the needs of humans. after all they will buy your product. robots will only buy energy and water


Lorand Kedves
Thoralf J. Klatt ... and we are back at the beginning: how does 'an AI design a question'? What is 'a machine' and what is 'thinking'? 🙂 / 🧠 / 🤖
For some seasoning, add Fred Hoyle's Black Cloud (if an intelligent entity should be human-like), or history / current politics (if being human-like actually means intelligent). 😁


Thoralf J. Klatt 
Lorand Kedves based on the 4 forces (push, pull, habits, anxieties) and functional, emotional personal, emotional social, life-changing, financial (unmet) needs. The answers are the interesting part. As always. AI is your personal assistant hashtag#PA, nothing more. You are accountable as a product owner. Hope this helps. Try it. cc Riccardo Mariti


Todd Johnson
When I use LLMs for coding, I'm not gambling or expecting it to pass the Turing test... I'm getting work done--more work than I ever got done before. My concern is that outside of their training distribution and outside of the custom agentic systems (such as Claude Code) they show very limited ability to reason even in areas where humans can do quite well. They are still stochastic parrots, albeit more and more clever ones and more and more useful ones. But leadership in most cases is bound to be fooled by these parrots, because they don't understand the limits and will be all too willing to accept the hype.


Lorand Kedves
Todd Johnson I know, but this is the problem, not the solution (painkiller vs cure).

I am an IT expert writing code for 40 years, got CS BSc in '99 (unlike the famous hype riders, and not in psychology, like prof. Hinton). I was a lead developer of an AI startup 25 years ago, we won Comdex '99 with DataScope, a data visualisation and knowledge extraction tool supported by "traditional" machine learning. I improved my knowledge graph tooling behind many projects (government, multinationals, startups, academic R&D) since then. Meanwhile I got suspicious that I missed something, went BACK to the academy at age 43 for a CS MSc and a half PhD (they rejected my research).

You are a very experienced and tech-aware client, one that I would love to work with. Now you have the illusion that you can accomplish more with your chatbots than ever before. But whatever you do is not more than the rough average of all previous works, that's the content of the LLM. Congratulations, you hired a million script kiddies. 🎉

But they will never have my knowledge because that is not the average but the exception. And nobody cares if I solve problems, because the money is NOT in solving but 'dealing with' them.
https://lnkd.in/dy5Tnm3n

Catch-22.

2025. december 13., szombat

Different MINDs...

On LinkedIn

Building AI requires a model of the MIND. The critical question is what kind of mind we talk about.

Here is a practical, technical approach, refined over decades under real and delivered projects. (For nerds like me: "mission statement", videos, GitHub repo.)

𝐌 odel
𝐈 ntellect
𝐍 arrative
𝐃 ialog

However, there is another alternative, which has nothing to do with solving real problems. That is efficient economic and social engineering, the one that wins in a "mature consumer society" (a.k.a. Idiocracy). If you think of actual people reading these words, or that history seems to repeat itself, that is not a coincidence.

𝐌 oney
𝐈 diotism
𝐍 arcissism
𝐃 ogmatism

I guess you would like this one, Axel C. 😉


Brad Hutchings
This post might be the perfect antidote to one just above on my timeline noting that just a week after Sam declared a "code red", which I'd never before heard of as a real thing in a tech company in 35+ years of doing this, OpenAI shipped ChatGPT 5.2, which leads all known and imagined benchmarks again. So thank you for this.


Lorand Kedves
Brad Hutchings Those benchmarks... 🤣 🤣 🤣 Chanting around a black box for a "machine god" to emerge, instead of doing proper research and engineering based on existing but forgotten white box models. Just as predicted BTW... 


I think my question that I sent to these overhyped kids a decade ago is still legit, and they have no better answer than the silence I got back then:
I would ask you a silly question: what is your definition of "intelligence"? No need to give links to AI levels or algorithms, I have been on the field for 20 years. I mean "intelligence", without the artificial part, "A" is the second question after defining "I". At least to me :-)

Also, to clarify those words for the record 🙂
Money - the circular financing scheme (same old bubble, has nothing to do with AI)
Idiotism - by Neil Postman https://youtu.be/YtjjFmCxc8s?t=547
Narcissism - no judgement, this is expected and enforced by the cult members
Dogmatism - that is the real issue https://youtu.be/8pTEmbeENF4?t=1791

It's just unfortunate that this second "mind" destroys my field of interest, so I sometimes vent a bit of steam here. 🤷‍♂️

Thanks for the response 🙏


Brad Hutchings
Lorand Kedves 💯 It's nice to run into people who see through the illusion.


Lorand Kedves
Brad Hutchings Unless those people are dead and forgotten and were far ahead of you, and you see how and why they failed. I tried to publish an article about some of them as part of my CS PhD (before the "chatbot revolution") It was of course rejected but here it is in case you are interested: The Science of Being Wrong.

It's hard to "keep the faith"...

Nice to meet you! 🙂 🖖


Brad Hutchings 
Lorand Kedves I feel a Bon Jovi song battle brewing. But it is late here. So... Have a nice day! 🤣



Simon Gant
id suggest a mind thats done the work......IYKYK



Lorand Kedves
Simon Gant By my model, that would mean a self-aware, -testing and -improving knowledge graph that can (and would) "know anything".
I explained the "secret sauce" to the OpenAI folks when they were not millionaire demigods but the puppets of Musk desperate to come up with something more interesting than a NN that can play games... 🤣
I don't know any attempts tested in delivered systems better than my ones, so "if you know, I want to know"... 🙏

That has nothing to do with this LLM / GenAI freak show.
Veteran engineers and researchers (like myself with 25+ years, a whole life in this arena) don't play with dreaming machines (ref Andrej Karpathy et al) or stochastic parrots. OK, ok, our company built one in the 90's, "Prody", a precursor of the infamous Clippy... 🤭 Don't blame me, I built decision trees, hypercubes and an agentic runtime.

But that should not be new...
for anyone who knows the warnings of the pioneers, like a certain A. M. Turing... I highlighted the apparently forgotten parts and work on the real challenge he proposed. Define the terms "machine" and "thinking" before making a statement that contains them, aiming at the goal set by Douglas Engelbart.

Augmenting Human Intellect.

H-LAM/T... IYKYK 😉




Francis Y.
Lorand Kedves what 'white box' models do you propose that can anywhere near match the effectivness of a transformer?



Lorand Kedves 
Francis Y. There is a total mismatch here.

I talk about transparent and reliable information systems (old school architecture / engineering spiced with machine learning and stretched towards Chomsky's generative grammar, a top-down approach). Not those that are "good enough to fool me on areas where I am not an expert", sorry for a less enthusiastic definition of chatbot / genai (that starts with Hinton's ignoring informatics, rejecting Chomsky and going bottom-up: build a brain simulator and if it is big enough, it will become "intelligent", without even defining this word. Nobel prize science indeed...)

The MIND model addresses the question of what thinking is, in a way aerodynamics addresses the question of flying (Turing challenge one: what is 'thinking'). This is the way you can build a jet plane that somewhat resembles to, yet totally different from a bird (Turing challenge two: what is a 'machine'). 

So the question is rather: what 'a transformer' has to do with a white box model of thinking? I don't have answer to this one, do you? 

But I think that they go in different directions, and if that's correct, the question of 'comparing effectiveness' is meaningless.

2025. december 8., hétfő

LinkedIn - "AI orchestrators"

LinkedIn

Companies will soon starve for this role

Not software engineers
Not prompt engineers.
Not data scientists.

But 𝗔𝗜 𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀.

People who understand models, prompting, chaining, and how to ship real products around them.

This isn’t taught anywhere yet. You can only learn it by building.
And most people either don’t have the chance to or don't want to.

If you can ship AI products end-to-end, you’re in the top 1 percent .




Lorand Kedves
As an experienced "full stack agent orchestrator", totally agree. The only question is: how my profession is related to this chatbot circus? 🤣
 

Daniel Kazani
 let it pass
Sure, but it's not that easy. I am 53, dynamic knowledge management in information systems (AI as Augmenting Intellect) was and still is my life.

But its imposter chatbot variant is
  1. a trillion dollar "industry" based on illiteracy and ignorance on a precisely predicted suicide trajectory 👇 that
  2. right now not only destroys the global economy (of which I don't care much, it is incompatible with a global civilisation) but also
  3. consumes impossible amount of natural and human resources that makes our survival less and less an option every day (Douglas Adams Last Chance to See) while
  4. the "big names" (Hinton, Musk, Altman, ...) keep moaning all the time while making themselves iconic figures and/or nice money to ensure their own safety "just in case anything happens". 🤦‍♂️

Maybe the last part that is too much for me... 🤔 🤷‍♂️